Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2045 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2045 MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3036 MIA 16:11 → DEN 18:26 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2045 United Flight history →	MIA 07:37	DEN 10:00	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
F9 1279 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DEN 08:23	13%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2436 American	MIA 09:52	DEN 12:08	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2852 United Flight history →	MIA 15:44	DEN 18:23	23%	7%	0.7%	82%
AA 1292 American	MIA 20:36	DEN 22:48	28%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 3036 Southwest	MIA 16:11	DEN 18:26	39%	8%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 18m	89%	75%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → DEN 09:42AA 1756	6h 17m	89%	71%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	57m Atlanta	ATL 15:02 → DEN 16:09DL 493	6h 07m	77%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON