Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1226 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1226 MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1359 MIA 18:43 → DFW 20:57 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1226 American Flight history →	MIA 05:25	DFW 07:40	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	11%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	16%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 893 American	MIA 09:42	DFW 11:54	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	21%	8%	0.8%	74%
AA 1287 American Flight history →	MIA 12:12	DFW 14:24	23%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 2183 American	MIA 14:18	DFW 16:33	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:34	DFW 16:49	25%	8%	1.0%	77%
AA 1824 American Flight history →	MIA 15:24	DFW 17:36	26%	10%	0.9%	63%
AA 3259 American Flight history →	MIA 16:39	DFW 18:49	29%	10%	0.9%	73%
AA 2289 American	MIA 19:38	DFW 21:49	31%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2828 American Flight history →	MIA 17:37	DFW 19:47	34%	11%	1.1%	63%
F9 1359 Frontier	MIA 18:43	DFW 20:57	40%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON