Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1864 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 1864 MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 322 MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1864 United Flight history →	MIA 07:07	EWR 10:11	8%	2%	1.1%	93%
UA 408 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	EWR 11:54	12%	4%	1.0%	88%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	MIA 08:23	EWR 11:34	12%	4%	1.1%	93%
UA 2433 United Flight history →	MIA 11:25	EWR 14:31	26%	9%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
UA 2029 United Flight history →	MIA 20:40	EWR 23:59	30%	10%	1.3%	72%
UA 1102 United	MIA 13:30	EWR 16:41	33%	13%	1.0%	no record
AA 2933 American Flight history →	MIA 14:26	EWR 17:38	36%	15%	0.9%	62%
AA 322 American Flight history →	MIA 19:48	EWR 22:53	42%	15%	1.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON