Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3827 MIA 08:55 → EYW 09:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3438 MIA 18:23 → EYW 19:24 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3827 Envoy	MIA 08:55	EYW 09:56	10%	2%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3436 Envoy	MIA 09:58	EYW 10:59	10%	2%	2.1%	no record
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 12:31	EYW 13:39	14%	3%	1.5%	85%
MQ 3438 Envoy	MIA 18:23	EYW 19:24	15%	4%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON