tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3435 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 21:25 GSP 23:24 17% 5% 1.3% 82%
AA 9740 American MIA 14:42 GSP 16:50 24% 8% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:07 → GSP 12:14AA 5802 · flown by Piedmont 5h 50m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725 6h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:07 → GSP 14:01DL 1273 6h 51m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:41 → GSP 13:09AA 3986 · flown by Envoy 7h 44m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:07 → GSP 16:07DL 3095 5h 27m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → GSP 18:55DL 1021 6h 53m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 2h 22m Philadelphia PHL 12:00 → GSP 14:04AA 6132 · flown by Piedmont 7h 19m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 20:35 → GSP 21:30AA 5524 · flown by PSA 5h 29m 93% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 54m Houston IAH 19:50 → GSP 23:19UA 4033 · flown by Mesa 6h 26m 72% 58%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:39 → DFW 18:49AA 3259 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:50 → GSP 23:16AA 2992 6h 37m 72% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON