tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2435 at 13:10, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → MIA 13:10 IAD 15:53 16% 5% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 7h 06m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 51m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524 9h 15m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 7h 50m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 6h 54m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 31m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 42m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 2h 59m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 8h 52m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470 2h 12m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 8h 17m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 54m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 4h 44m 74% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON