Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2417 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2417 MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2230 MIA 20:11 → IAH 21:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	11%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 1347 American	MIA 08:18	IAH 10:13	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	18%	7%	0.7%	87%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:23	IAH 13:15	21%	7%	1.1%	85%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	22%	9%	0.8%	74%
MQ 3358 Envoy	MIA 15:33	IAH 17:09	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:22	IAH 16:17	25%	10%	0.7%	61%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:11	IAH 21:59	31%	13%	1.3%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON