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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Wilmington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731 6h 33m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292 7h 23m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 12:13 → ILM 13:19AA 5416 · flown by PSA 6h 55m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 3h 34m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont 8h 12m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 2h 07m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → ILM 21:35AA 2826 5h 34m 92% 73%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 17:15 → ILM 18:27AA 2105 4h 57m 89% 71%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339 3h 13m New York LGA 14:29 → ILM 16:42DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor 8h 23m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:58 → DCA 12:43AA 1612 50m Washington DCA 13:33 → ILM 15:04AA 5313 · flown by PSA 5h 06m 82% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON