Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2862 at 15:26, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2862 American	MIA 15:26	IND 18:24	26%	10%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	6h 36m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	6h 59m	99%	86%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:46 → IND 14:00AA 4713 · flown by Republic	7h 20m	99%	85%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687	6h 37m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120	7h 05m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339	3h 27m New York	LGA 14:43 → IND 17:13DL 5646 · flown by Republic	8h 58m	100%	82%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491	59m Washington	DCA 09:40 → IND 11:39AA 4701 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	93%	82%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	3h 52m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → IND 14:09AA 1589	7h 45m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	52m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic	5h 55m	62%	55%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	49m Detroit	DTW 17:42 → IND 19:00DL 5034 · flown by Endeavor	5h 22m	71%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON