Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4024 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4024 MIA 08:16 → JAX 09:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4023 MIA 17:41 → JAX 19:04 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4024 Envoy	MIA 08:16	JAX 09:44	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 4069 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:54	JAX 15:17	20%	5%	1.9%	77%
MQ 4023 Envoy	MIA 17:41	JAX 19:04	26%	7%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON