Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 525 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 525 MIA 06:30 → JFK 09:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2600 MIA 18:37 → JFK 21:49 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 525 American Flight history →	MIA 06:30	JFK 09:37	6%	2%	1.0%	92%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	JFK 10:03	6%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 2341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:47	JFK 11:48	11%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 2062 American	MIA 10:22	JFK 13:32	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 1473 Delta	MIA 11:31	JFK 14:26	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2899 American Flight history →	MIA 13:53	JFK 17:03	24%	8%	0.9%	61%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:17	JFK 18:50	24%	8%	0.9%	73%
AA 2124 American	MIA 16:20	JFK 19:28	25%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	30%	10%	1.1%	56%
DL 1794 Delta	MIA 19:50	JFK 22:46	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2600 American	MIA 18:37	JFK 21:49	32%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON