Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1490 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1490 MIA 08:20 → LAS 10:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3321 MIA 17:22 → LAS 19:43 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1490 American	MIA 08:20	LAS 10:34	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1173 American	MIA 09:53	LAS 12:05	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 3321 American Flight history →	MIA 17:22	LAS 19:43	30%	13%	0.9%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	7h 25m	95%	82%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 22m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	7h 47m	95%	80%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:01 → LAS 10:03AA 1550	7h 38m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON