Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 713 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 713 MIA 07:07 → LAX 09:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 996 MIA 15:46 → LAX 18:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 713 American Flight history →	MIA 07:07	LAX 09:34	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:39	LAX 11:18	16%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	17%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	23%	8%	0.8%	84%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:37	LAX 16:14	24%	10%	0.7%	73%
AA 996 American	MIA 15:46	LAX 18:23	28%	12%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983	1h 36m Phoenix	PHX 10:57 → LAX 12:35AA 2027	8h 06m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 45m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON