Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2387 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2387 MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2271 MIA 18:13 → LGA 21:21 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2387 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:25	LGA 09:24	9%	3%	1.1%	87%
AA 3205 American Flight history →	MIA 06:56	LGA 09:59	13%	3%	1.3%	90%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:15	LGA 11:16	14%	3%	1.0%	76%
AA 605 American Flight history →	MIA 08:59	LGA 12:13	16%	4%	1.1%	88%
AA 2424 American	MIA 09:58	LGA 13:09	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 1498 Delta	MIA 11:39	LGA 14:35	24%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2484 American	MIA 12:32	LGA 15:38	28%	10%	1.1%	no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:29	LGA 18:45	30%	10%	1.1%	72%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:40	LGA 22:59	31%	11%	1.3%	57%
AA 1389 American Flight history →	MIA 20:40	LGA 23:44	33%	11%	1.9%	58%
AA 2262 American	MIA 19:54	LGA 23:01	34%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 897 American	MIA 15:30	LGA 18:39	35%	13%	1.1%	no record
AA 552 American	MIA 14:31	LGA 17:37	38%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 2172 American	MIA 16:31	LGA 19:40	39%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 2271 American Flight history →	MIA 18:13	LGA 21:21	40%	14%	1.4%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON