Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 3710 Envoy	MIA 14:23	MCI 16:46	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 670 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	MCI 23:59	28%	9%	1.1%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747	7h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	7h 09m	99%	86%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	3h 53m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa	8h 59m	100%	85%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	3h 40m Denver	DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586	9h 45m	99%	85%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:05 → MCI 18:46AA 4165 · flown by Envoy	8h 46m	99%	84%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → MCI 12:39AA 1376	8h 14m	99%	84%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 12:25 → MCI 13:50AA 3233	8h 26m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321	8h 11m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:53DL 1323	52m Atlanta	ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56DL 1130	5h 05m	70%	56%
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	1h 10m New York	LGA 19:55 → MCI 22:21DL 563	7h 52m	74%	54%
American Details →	MIA 12:12 → DFW 14:24AA 1287	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:11 → MCI 17:00AA 3030	5h 48m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON