Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2693 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2693 MIA 07:11 → MCO 08:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 17:29 → MCO 18:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2693 Southwest	MIA 07:11	MCO 08:22	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 06:44	MCO 08:00	6%	3%	0.8%	97%
AA 2587 American Flight history →	MIA 09:22	MCO 10:38	13%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 1635 American	MIA 13:56	MCO 15:13	24%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 19:19	MCO 20:38	30%	10%	1.4%	60%
WN 2929 Southwest	MIA 18:11	MCO 19:22	32%	10%	2.4%	no record
AA 2495 American Flight history →	MIA 18:30	MCO 19:47	33%	10%	1.9%	70%
AA 1610 American	MIA 17:29	MCO 18:46	33%	11%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON