Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 22m	99%	89%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 10:15 → MEM 11:09AA 1790	5h 45m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	6h 55m	99%	87%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	8h 35m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	7h 27m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 12m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	8h 23m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	7h 25m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 12:12 → DFW 14:24AA 1287	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:18 → MEM 17:02AA 2969	5h 50m	74%	54%
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	1h 05m New York	LGA 19:50 → MEM 21:37DL 5606 · flown by Republic	7h 08m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON