tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2566 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2566 American MIA 08:16 MSY 09:27 13% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 1680 American MIA 17:18 MSY 18:40 28% 11% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 37m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 6h 57m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491 2h 44m Washington DCA 11:25 → MSY 13:08AA 2586 8h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 6h 17m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678 7h 22m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 26m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → MSY 11:43AA 1650 7h 18m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 2h 22m Newark EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468 8h 37m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON