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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 7h 12m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → OKC 12:22AA 1626 6h 58m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → OKC 12:07AA 3099 7h 42m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:08 → DEN 10:50UA 2045 2h 34m Denver DEN 13:24 → OKC 16:13UA 1656 9h 05m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 2h 45m Chicago ORD 11:53 → OKC 14:06AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest 8h 26m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 6h 42m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784 7h 06m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → OKC 14:34AA 2929 8h 34m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:37 → LAX 16:14AA 3014 57m Los Angeles LAX 17:11 → OKC 22:20AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 9h 43m 65% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON