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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:29, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661 8h 00m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635 9h 42m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 10m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → ONT 12:10AA 2956 9h 45m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:20 → PHX 13:08AA 3172 3h 48m Phoenix PHX 16:56 → ONT 18:26AA 1666 10h 06m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 28m 98% 78%
FrontierDetails → MIA 11:23 → IAH 13:15F9 1067 2h 58m Houston IAH 16:13 → ONT 17:59F9 3131 9h 36m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 52m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 7h 21m 74% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON