Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 581 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 581 MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2106 MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	7%	3%	1.1%	87%
AA 1464 American	MIA 05:24	ORD 07:53	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 3076 American	MIA 08:23	ORD 10:55	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	21%	8%	0.8%	82%
AA 835 American	MIA 13:04	ORD 15:38	21%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 19:09	ORD 21:46	28%	11%	1.0%	62%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	30%	12%	1.2%	60%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 16:53	ORD 19:27	30%	12%	1.2%	49%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	30%	12%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	5h 10m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON