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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3799 at 14:23, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3799 Envoy MIA 14:23 ORF 16:49 22% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925 7h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 28m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 7h 30m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:47 → JFK 11:48AA 2341 3h 42m New York JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:09AA 4359 · flown by Republic 8h 22m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984 7h 33m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346 6h 52m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205 3h 16m New York LGA 13:15 → ORF 14:56AA 4358 · flown by Republic 8h 00m 99% 81%
FrontierDetails → MIA 05:27 → ATL 07:35F9 2483 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 09:28 → ORF 11:15F9 3072 5h 48m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON