Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2129 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2129 MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2795 MIA 17:02 → PHL 20:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2129 American Flight history →	MIA 06:45	PHL 09:38	7%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 551 American Flight history →	MIA 09:15	PHL 12:10	12%	5%	1.0%	86%
AA 1918 American	MIA 11:27	PHL 14:32	19%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2191 American	MIA 13:54	PHL 16:53	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
F9 3380 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:47	PHL 17:52	24%	11%	1.2%	77%
AA 3274 American	MIA 20:12	PHL 23:20	24%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 3169 American	MIA 17:54	PHL 21:06	27%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 2795 American	MIA 17:02	PHL 20:04	29%	10%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON