Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1983 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1983 MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2982 MIA 17:40 → PHX 19:28 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1983 American Flight history →	MIA 07:29	PHX 09:21	11%	4%	0.7%	92%
AA 3172 American Flight history →	MIA 11:20	PHX 13:08	19%	8%	0.7%	77%
AA 1138 American	MIA 13:53	PHX 15:58	21%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2982 American Flight history →	MIA 17:40	PHX 19:28	26%	11%	0.8%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	7h 04m	95%	80%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905	7h 06m	89%	78%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336	7h 12m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON