tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1702 at 20:59, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1702 American Flight history → MIA 20:59 PIT 23:48 32% 14% 1.1% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 52m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 30m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 12:32 → PIT 14:07AA 1736 7h 43m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 6h 28m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583 6h 09m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122 6h 45m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 3h 46m New York LGA 13:10 → PIT 14:47DL 5715 · flown by Republic 8h 22m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 3h 48m Philadelphia PHL 13:26 → PIT 14:53AA 9827 8h 08m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:12 → DFW 14:24AA 1287 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:14 → PIT 19:14AA 1868 7h 02m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON