tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3568 Envoy MIA 09:58 PNS 10:53 14% 2% 0.9% no record
MQ 3566 Envoy MIA 17:48 PNS 18:43 23% 4% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 7h 23m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 10:45 → PNS 11:32AA 2476 6h 08m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 6h 55m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 18m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:04 → PNS 13:03AA 2863 7h 03m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:55 → PNS 14:53AA 2328 6h 53m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 56m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 4h 13m 73% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON