Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2321 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2321 MIA 08:23 → RDU 10:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2992 MIA 18:28 → RDU 20:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2321 American Flight history →	MIA 08:23	RDU 10:45	10%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 3281 American	MIA 13:56	RDU 16:16	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1649 American	MIA 16:27	RDU 18:47	27%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 1566 American Flight history →	MIA 19:00	RDU 21:17	29%	12%	1.1%	69%
DL 2992 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:28	RDU 20:53	30%	12%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON