tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Richmond on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 56m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 7h 05m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 1h 54m Charlotte CLT 10:29 → RIC 11:48AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 24m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 3h 34m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 43m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 23m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 6h 51m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → RIC 14:23AA 1915 8h 58m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON