tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:29, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3010 American MIA 20:13 SAN 22:39 32% 10% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843 8h 39m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 58m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 9h 35m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983 1h 28m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → SAN 12:25AA 2122 7h 56m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 10h 18m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466 9h 41m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 30m Detroit DTW 20:23 → SAN 22:01DL 700 11h 23m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:20 → SAN 15:50UA 1114 10h 02m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 56m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 7h 25m 73% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON