tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1468 at 19:55, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1468 American Flight history → MIA 19:55 SAT 22:02 31% 11% 0.9% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 28m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 18m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983 3h 01m Phoenix PHX 12:22 → SAT 16:44AA 570 10h 15m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 50m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:12 → DFW 14:24AA 1287 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:24 → SAT 18:37AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 7h 25m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 7h 31m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:02 → SAT 10:26AA 2759 6h 01m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:12 → SAT 13:32AA 2768 7h 32m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 7h 47m 73% 57%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:24 → DFW 17:36AA 1824 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SAT 19:48AA 2368 5h 24m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON