tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Louisville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → SDF 12:23DL 1481 6h 23m 99% 93%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 13:39 → SDF 15:03DL 3195 6h 43m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 1h 51m Charlotte CLT 10:26 → SDF 11:51AA 5145 · flown by PSA 5h 27m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:14 → DTW 16:17DL 1468 3h 28m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:46 → SDF 17:10DL 1126 6h 30m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 2h 37m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 7h 53m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:59 → LGA 09:54DL 2387 1h 37m New York LGA 11:31 → SDF 13:47DL 5637 · flown by Republic 6h 48m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:02 → SDF 17:16AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 6h 16m 63% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON