Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 22% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	MIA 18:20	SEA 22:00	25%	8%	0.9%	69%
DL 506 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:26	SEA 22:10	25%	8%	0.8%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 40m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03DL 2428	1h 27m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 45m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	11h 25m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	11h 55m	99%	81%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	3h 53m Charlotte	CLT 12:28 → SEA 15:21AA 506	11h 57m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	11h 09m	98%	80%
American Details →	MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → SEA 13:53AA 2208	9h 24m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 11:25 → EWR 14:31UA 2433	47m Newark	EWR 15:18 → SEA 18:18UA 1814	9h 53m	22%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON