Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1257 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1257 MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 590 MIA 16:41 → SFO 19:39 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	15%	5%	0.7%	90%
AA 2753 American Flight history →	MIA 07:16	SFO 10:14	18%	6%	0.7%	92%
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 16:41	SFO 19:39	31%	14%	0.7%	22%
AA 590 American	MIA 16:41	SFO 19:39	36%	14%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	97%	77%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 27m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495	8h 48m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON