Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 50m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:25 → SJC 11:18AA 2046	8h 53m	97%	84%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → SJC 13:56AA 2834	9h 56m	99%	83%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 30m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256	8h 32m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:53DL 1323	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	8h 58m	93%	82%
American Details →	MIA 11:20 → PHX 13:08AA 3172	3h 20m Phoenix	PHX 16:28 → SJC 18:36AA 2094	10h 16m	98%	78%
American Details →	MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983	59m Phoenix	PHX 10:20 → SJC 12:22AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	7h 53m	88%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	46m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	7h 43m	68%	59%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → SJC 13:56AA 2834	7h 56m	69%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON