Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3033 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3033 MIA 06:46 → SJU 09:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1689 MIA 18:17 → SJU 21:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3033 American	MIA 06:46	SJU 09:32	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:14	SJU 10:58	11%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 1613 American Flight history →	MIA 11:27	SJU 14:21	16%	8%	0.9%	85%
F9 2284 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 08:04	SJU 10:52	17%	7%	1.3%	77%
AA 967 American Flight history →	MIA 13:12	SJU 16:04	18%	8%	0.8%	60%
AA 1689 American Flight history →	MIA 18:17	SJU 21:11	22%	12%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON