tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 976 Delta MIA 07:06 SLC 10:08 9% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 1017 American MIA 19:53 SLC 23:19 27% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 10m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 40m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 10:14 → SLC 12:29AA 1895 8h 05m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 10h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 31m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 9h 36m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 38m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03DL 2428 1h 11m New York JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 9h 16m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983 47m Phoenix PHX 10:08 → SLC 12:55AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 65% 59%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 47m Detroit DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 7h 56m 68% 57%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:03 → SLC 15:54AA 1456 6h 54m 66% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON