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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 10h 20m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:29 → PHX 09:21AA 1983 1h 53m Phoenix PHX 11:14 → SNA 12:53AA 1656 8h 24m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 9h 48m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:35 → SNA 11:01AA 1939 8h 36m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 9h 58m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:29 → SNA 15:57AA 2659 9h 57m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:18 → SNA 17:46AA 3223 9h 46m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON