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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:20DL 3115 7h 00m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 6h 01m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 6h 37m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452 5h 50m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 3h 41m Charlotte CLT 19:29 → SRQ 21:25AA 2604 7h 55m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 1h 04m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 7h 08m 93% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON