tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 477 at 11:32 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 477 American MIA 11:32 STL 13:42 20% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 3040 Southwest MIA 19:11 STL 21:06 38% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 7h 17m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 07m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 7h 59m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 12:05 → STL 13:04AA 3096 7h 40m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 26m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → STL 16:38AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 8h 38m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 51m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 6h 56m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 23m Houston IAH 12:05 → STL 14:34UA 2042 6h 46m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 46m Chicago ORD 15:59 → STL 17:27UA 4416 · flown by GoJet 5h 57m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON