Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1977 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1977 MIA 08:15 → TPA 09:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1921 MIA 20:48 → TPA 21:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1977 American	MIA 08:15	TPA 09:29	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1980 American	MIA 13:12	TPA 14:28	25%	8%	1.3%	no record
MQ 4093 Envoy	MIA 16:34	TPA 17:48	25%	6%	2.4%	no record
MQ 4122 Envoy	MIA 18:11	TPA 19:18	32%	8%	2.5%	no record
AA 1921 American Flight history →	MIA 20:48	TPA 21:57	37%	13%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON