tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004 3h 53m Charlotte CLT 12:28 → TUL 14:00AA 2657 8h 36m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 13m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 7h 02m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 27m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → TUL 11:58AA 2352 7h 33m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 2h 46m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 7h 22m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 18:25 → TUL 19:58AA 2662 7h 28m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 50m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 4h 51m 69% 59%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 48m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 4h 55m 70% 58%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:30AA 2851 5h 30m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON