Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Knoxville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	5h 10m	98%	89%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 11:11 → TYS 12:34AA 5953 · flown by Piedmont	6h 10m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	6h 28m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	6h 42m	98%	84%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → TYS 12:51AA 2544	7h 26m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	6h 36m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	6h 09m	99%	79%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:25 → TYS 16:44AA 2550	7h 44m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 15:24 → DFW 17:36AA 1824	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:29 → TYS 21:42AA 5346 · flown by PSA	6h 18m	71%	55%
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	54m Houston	IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa	6h 19m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON