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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 29m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 6h 40m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 6h 21m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 33m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 4h 58m 89% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 7h 03m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 6h 43m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 8h 38m 99% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON