Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → XNA 14:17AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 17m	99%	88%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	3h 50m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 27m	100%	85%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	97%	85%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	3h 30m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	9h 48m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	7h 03m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → XNA 20:31DL 1710	7h 22m	97%	82%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	7h 46m	99%	82%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → XNA 11:05AA 2025	6h 40m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	5h 27m	68%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON