Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3229 at 08:51, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3229 Southwest	MKE 08:51	AUS 11:40	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 45m	98%	88%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688	6h 59m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	7h 04m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	7h 50m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491	7h 08m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25DL 2749	6h 26m	98%	82%
United Details →	MKE 07:50 → ORD 09:00UA 4803 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	6h 51m	94%	81%
United Details →	MKE 08:04 → IAH 10:53UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483	7h 23m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	57m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → AUS 18:41DL 1612	5h 19m	67%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON