Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 2230 MKE 09:35 → BOS 12:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest DL 5614 MKE 11:35 → BOS 15:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2230 JetBlue Flight history →	MKE 09:35	BOS 12:48	19%	7%	0.7%	77%
DL 5619 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 18:59	BOS 22:26	25%	7%	0.9%	77%
DL 5614 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 11:35	BOS 15:05	27%	8%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON