Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1525 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1525 MKE 07:21 → DCA 10:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5637 MKE 17:14 → DCA 20:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1525 Southwest	MKE 07:21	DCA 10:28	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5646 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:00	DCA 09:11	10%	4%	1.5%	84%
WN 3048 Southwest	MKE 17:01	DCA 20:08	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 5637 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 17:14	DCA 20:17	23%	8%	1.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON