Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1658 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1658 MKE 05:32 → DEN 07:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3051 MKE 18:31 → DEN 20:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1658 Southwest	MKE 05:32	DEN 07:12	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4849 Southwest	MKE 11:26	DEN 13:02	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5501 SkyWest	MKE 10:39	DEN 12:21	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1969 United	MKE 14:39	DEN 16:17	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6028 SkyWest	MKE 08:45	DEN 10:27	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5344 SkyWest	MKE 17:58	DEN 20:01	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3051 Southwest	MKE 18:31	DEN 20:05	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON