Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2621 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2621 MKE 07:21 → DFW 10:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 869 MKE 17:44 → DFW 20:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2621 American Flight history →	MKE 07:21	DFW 10:00	13%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 2581 American Flight history →	MKE 12:17	DFW 14:55	18%	6%	0.8%	72%
AA 869 American Flight history →	MKE 17:44	DFW 20:23	24%	9%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON