Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5625 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5625 MKE 06:00 → LGA 09:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest YX 5612 MKE 17:42 → LGA 21:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5625 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 06:00	LGA 09:15	9%	4%	2.1%	89%
DL 5613 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 13:19	LGA 16:49	22%	8%	1.5%	44%
YX 5612 Republic	MKE 17:42	LGA 21:10	25%	12%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON